S&P 500 notches 5-day streak of gains ahead of next week’s Fed meeting

• US stocks surged as investors anticipate a significant Federal Reserve rate cut next week.

• The S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow Jones all posted gains amid rate cut speculation.

• Odds of a 50 basis point cut rose sharply this week from about 30% to 49%.

US stocks jumped on Friday as investors assessed look ahead to a likely rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 notched a five-day win streak, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged almost 300 points.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 are less than 1% away from record highs.

The S&P 500 jumped 4% this week, compared to a 6% and 2.5% gain for the Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones, respectively.

Investors are laser-focused on the Fed as it gears up to host its Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week. Chances of a 50 basis point interest rate cut from the Fed surged this week.

Odds are split 49% / 51% for a 50 basis point or 25 basis point rate cut, respectively. Markets saw the odds of a 50 basis point cut closer to 30% at the start of the week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

“While the pace and magnitude of the Fed’s upcoming easing cycle remain in flux (we expect the Fed will start with a 25 bp cut), all eyes will be on the Committee’s economic forecasts and the Fed Chair’s press conference for clues on how things will evolve,” Raymond James CIO Larry Adam said in a note on Friday.

A new dot plot from the Fed could shift the market’s tone as it reveals how many interest rate cuts the Fed members expect over the next year.

“A less aggressive Fed rate outlook could spark some volatility given market expectations,” Adam said.

Regardless of how much the Fed cuts rates next week, it will be a big event, as it will mark the first time since 2019 that the Fed has lowered its benchmark rate.

Here’s where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Friday:

Here’s what else is going on:

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In commodities, bonds, and crypto:

• West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased 0.19% to $69.10 a barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, was up 0.04% to $72.00 a barrel.

• Gold was up 1.12% to $2,609.40 an ounce.

• The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by 2 basis points at 3.659%.

• Bitcoin jumped 2.87% to $59,807.

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