A widely followed crypto analyst is updating his outlook on when Bitcoin (BTC) could pull off a reversal into bullish territory.
In a new video update, crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen tells his 809,000 YouTube subscribers that Bitcoin could continue to print bearish price action until the end of 2024.
“How long could the lower high/lower low structure go on for before the trend changes? I think it could go on for as long as the rest of the year. That honestly seems about right to me.”
Cowen believes a bullish reversal may not occur until the Fed cuts interest rates by at least 75 basis points, based on what occurred last cycle.
The Fed is expected to begin the rate-cutting process in September.
However, Cowen also outlines one scenario that could see Bitcoin ending its bearish price action before year-end.
“It’s possible that [the bearish pattern] could be broken in October, as rate cuts arrive if perhaps the neutral rate is higher than the Fed thinks…
If they were to cut and they end up going to a level that’s lower than the neutral rate, then it’s possible that the downtrend could be over as early as September, when they cut rates. I would say that’s the optimistic scenario.
I would say the more moderate scenario is by the end of the year, because last cycle it took about 75 basis points of rate cuts to basically take out that lower high structure. And there’s a good chance that the Fed is going to take several meetings to get 75 basis points of rate cuts in. It might actually take until the end of the year, and then you might get a spring back up in January 2025.”
Bitcoin is trading for $59,162 at time of writing, up slightly in the last 24 hours.
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