There is a mounting expectation of a series of spot Bitcoin ETF approvals in the United States. Analyst James Seyffart from Bloomberg Intelligence has pointed to a high likelihood of such an event.
“We still believe 90% chance by Jan 10 for spot #Bitcoin ETF approvals,” Seyffart posted on the X social media network.
He also noted a potential “wave of approval orders for all the current applicants could occur.”
Approaching the approval horizon
Seyffart’s research indicates a coordinated delay in orders by the SEC for multiple firms, including industry heavyweights like BlackRock and Fidelity.
This strategic delay suggests the SEC could be aligning to permit a suite of Bitcoin ETFs in the near future. The analyst highlights a specific window, precipitated by Grayscale’s recent court victory, which may lead to a domino effect of approvals by January 2024.
Seyffart further clarified that the SEC has until Nov. 17 to decide on the first batch of applications, with the rest potentially being greenlit by early next year.
A hypothetical approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs this week could set in motion a possibly protracted launch period for these financial products, according to legal analyst Scott Johnsson.
If theres a hypothetical approval this week, there’s probably MINIMUM a month (and probably a couple) before any ETF actually launches. S-1s still under review and no real hard deadline for that process. Though I consider it more a formality at that stage. Would be a wild period.
— Scott Johnsson (@SGJohnsson) November 8, 2023
A global perspective
Globally, the appetite for spot Bitcoin ETFs is robust, with CoinGecko reporting total assets at $4.16 billion.
Canadian ETFs, launched in 2021, hold nearly half of these assets. In contrast, the U.S. has so far approved only futures-based ETFs, a less desirable option.
Other jurisdictions like Germany have seen success with their Bitcoin ETFs. Hong Kong is also racing to approve spot crypto ETFs. Meanwhile, the U.S. market remains in anticipation of a regulatory nod that could unlock a market with first-day demand estimates soaring above $1 billion.
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